Colt FX Late Edition November 3rd
In this week’s issue:
Forex Review, October 27th to 31st
Monday November 3rd Update
Forecast, November 3rd to 7th
Colt FX blog
Sammy’s calls: Week 4
Live trading session: Wednesday November 5th
Forex Club Platinum Package
Forex Review October 27th to 31st
Week sees corrections
The week was one of correction in the prevailing trends with the greenback losing some ground against the Europeans and strengthening against the Japanese Yen …Forex Focus
Calendar October 27th to 31st
Monday November 3rd News round-up
The week opened to the Monday morning blues as a number of sources painted a gloomy outlook for the global economy as a whole and the big players in particular. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 41.0 in October, its lowest since the survey began in January 1998, from 44.7 in September. The index combines survey data from countries including the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, China and Russia.
As far as the European Commission is concerned, the euro zone economy is in a recession and growth for the region will come to a standstill next year. The executive of the European Union said Monday morning that it had cut its forecast for growth in 2009 for the 15-nation economic bloc to 0.1%, from 1.5%, saying that the economic situation for the region was "precarious" and economic outlook bleak. The Commission said that gross domestic product for the euro zone had contracted in the third quarter, and that the euro zone was technically now in recession. However, a number of analysts criticized the Commission for being too optimistic.
The UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which combines orders and output levels in British factories, was 41.5, a slight improvement on September's record low of 41, but still well below the 50 mark which indicates no change. The survey described the conditions facing British manufacturers as “brutal”.
Later, US data releases saw the ISM PMI dropped to 38.9, worse than anticipated by economists and the lowest level since September 1982. The report raises the risk that the current economic slump will be deeper than the last two recessions in 2001 and 1991 as the credit drought and weakening sales force businesses to retrench.
Bad news all round really, confirming the current strategy of following the money flow to safety. It will be interesting to see if the Swiss franc can regain its mantle of safety after the banking crisis rocked its world. Interest rate cut wise, the news out of the UK is causing many to speculate that the BoE will be cutting more than 50bps on Thursday, so I’ll be looking for more downside pressure in the coming days.
One other thing worth checking in the next 24 hrs or so is the RBA’s interest rate announcement. They are expected to cut by 50 bps from 6.00% to 5.50% and a cut of 25 bps could be a good buying opportunity for a quick in and out 50 pips. If they cut 75 bps to 5.25% (or beyond), I’m planning on selling the Aussie with a target of 0.6650.
Forecast November 3rd to 7th
This week will be quite fraught with uncertainty and crisis in the ascendant. The Royal Bank of Australia, the ECB and the Bank of England are due to make interest rate announcements with all the banks expected to follow the Fed’s lead and cut by 50 bps. Any larger cuts would lead to significant downside action for the respective currency. Of the three, the bank of England is most likely to make a more aggressive cut with several economists predicting a 75bps cut and some going as far as 1%. The big news of this week from anyone’s perspective is the result of the US Presidential elections. I’d say an Obama victory would be good for the dollar and a McCain victory could see the dollar fall.
We see EUR/USD finding resistance at 1.30 and support at 1.23.
GBP/USD should find resistance at 1.64 and support at 1.55
USD/JPY could rise as high as 102.50, with support at 95.
Colt FX blog
I have started a blog on blogger.com called Colt on candles. It will discuss candle patterns on weekly charts and will also include trading plans, comments, general musings and links to all things forex. You may find it of interest.
Sammy’s Calls
Sorry about last week’s no show, no excuses only apologies.
Sorry about last week’s no show, no excuses only apologies.
Here are this weeks calls (November 3, 20.00 GMT)
1. USD/JPY, I am hoping to buy at 98.10, S/L 96.70, target 102.00.
2. GBP/USD, I’m selling at 1.5970, S/L 1.6140, target 1.5480.
3. EUR/USD, Trying to run after this one (never a good idea) but here goes. I’m selling at 1.2750, S/L 1.2870, target 1.2300.
Let’s see how this week treats me. We’re currently just shy of $570 to the good so we’ve room for a punt.
All the best Sammy.
Live Trading Sessions
The next session will be on Wednesday November 5th at 15:30 to 17:30 GMT. We will be trading the Colt FX pairs; and the Jam FX system, combining different time frames with fibs and preparing for the BoE and ECB rate cuts.
Colt FX Testimonials
I have put up some recent Colt FX testimonials on the Notice Board. Take a look at what other people are saying about Colt FX.
Forex Club’s Platinum Package
Forex Club is offering the Colt FX distance learning course as part of their package of incentives to open a Platinum account. You can learn more about the details of this offer at http://www.fxclub.com/platinum/. You can find out more about Colt FX in our short film What is Colt FX?
Forex Club is offering the Colt FX distance learning course as part of their package of incentives to open a Platinum account. You can learn more about the details of this offer at http://www.fxclub.com/platinum/. You can find out more about Colt FX in our short film What is Colt FX?
That just about wraps it up for this week. If you have any questions about this newsletter or any of our services, please drop me a line at colt@coltfx.com.
Remember that one week’s access to Colt FX Module 1 is available for free at www.coltfx.com to everyone who subscribes to this newsletter.
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Disclaimer
www.coltfx.com, and any of its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available in this newsletter. The content provided is put forward in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Colt FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Colt FX or any of its affiliates, liable for decisions that are based on information in this newsletter. We highly recommend that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.
www.coltfx.com, and any of its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available in this newsletter. The content provided is put forward in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Colt FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Colt FX or any of its affiliates, liable for decisions that are based on information in this newsletter. We highly recommend that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.
3 November | 
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