Colt FX Late Edition October 27th
In this week’s issue:
Forex Review, October 20th to 24th
Monday 27th Update
Forecast, October 27th to 31st
Sammy’s calls: Week 4
Live trading session: Wednesday 29th October
Colt FX testimonials
Forex Club Platinum Package
Forex Review October 20th to 24th
Japanese Yen and the US hit multi-year highs as traders scramble for safety.
As the global financial crisis continues, there was carnage on the currency markets. The Japanese yen hit a 13-year high against the greenback and climbed 13% against the euro, its biggest weekly advance ever. The US dollar strengthened to multi-year highs against both sterling and the euro as traders abandoned the Europeans in their scramble to safety…read more plus charts and Forex Focus
Calendar October 27th to 31st
For an extensive list of the week’s economic releases and events see our economic calendar.
Monday 27th News round-up
The week opened as Asian stocks slumped for the fourth day running with Japan’s Nikkei down to its lowest close since 1982 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng sinking as much as 15%. Europe followed suit with all the major exchanges opening to falls. However, they did recover by the close of the session and things calmed down through the US session until the end when the jitters came back again with a sharp sell-off in the last 30 minutes of trading. The Forex market reflected the fear in the wider investing world, both the yen and the dollar continuing to strengthen with EUR/USD falling to 1.2350, GBP/USD testing support at 1.53 and notice how the yen managed to hold onto last weeks gains, testing support at 92.00 twice during today’s trading.
INTERVENTION ALERT: The Reserve Bank of Australia is said to be buying AUS/USD at around 60.50, so be careful shorting the Aussie, you’ll have a tough battle against the RBA.
INTERVENTION ALERT 2: There are rumours of a possible yen intervention after the G& issued an unscheduled release saying that they were concerned about the recent ‘excessive volatility’ of the yen. Later, Japanese finance minister Shoichi Nakagawa said that he was watching currencies with "great interest". But some analysts said that while the possibility of concerted currency intervention was closer, it may still take time for authorities to act.
"It (the G7 statement) was hardly a warning shot, it was more like saying we are aware of recent volatility ... we're not there yet for intervention," said Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS in London.
While not ruling out intervention by Japanese authorities if the dollar sinks to 80-85 yen sharply, "the likelihood is that everything will be done through the G7 framework, that's what the U.S. Treasury wants," he added.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the IMF have agreed to lend Ukraine $16.5B and have promised Hungary a “substantial… package”. This could go some way towards shoring up confidence in Europe’s prospects.
While not ruling out intervention by Japanese authorities if the dollar sinks to 80-85 yen sharply, "the likelihood is that everything will be done through the G7 framework, that's what the U.S. Treasury wants," he added.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the IMF have agreed to lend Ukraine $16.5B and have promised Hungary a “substantial… package”. This could go some way towards shoring up confidence in Europe’s prospects.
There’s mixed news on the future of interest rates. The odds on the Fed halving its target rate for overnight bank loans to 0.75 percent on Oct. 29 rose to 26 percent last week, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. The chances were zero a week earlier. ECB President, Jean-Claude Trichet was speaking in Madrid today and said it was possible that on November 6th the
ECB “Governing Council would decrease interest rates once again at its next meeting.''
Forecast October 27th to 31st
Last week saw the global economy slip into recession. We expect the dollar to continue to strengthen against the European currencies, however, be on the alert for snap rallies.
Current volatility accounts for this week’s wide ranges. Probably, the best strategy would be to sell on any corrections up and follow the trend down. If euro / dollar breaks down 1.25, next target is 1.20. The pair will find resistance at 1.30.
If Sterling/dollar closes below 1.54, next target is 1.50, with resistance at 1.64.
If JPY breaks through support at 90.90, the next target will be 86.
Sammy’s Calls
Last week’s calls: 9.30 GMT, Monday October 20th
Last week’s calls: 9.30 GMT, Monday October 20th
- USD/JPY, I am hoping to sell at 102.50, S/L 103.20, target 100.50. NO TRADE
- NZD/USD, I’m selling at 0.6230, S/L 0.6350, target 0.5850.WINNER
- EUR/USD, Outside the box here, I’m buying at 1.3520, S/L 1.3440, target 1.3740. NO TRADE
Just missed the JPY call with price coming to within 40 pips before heading south. A miss is as good as a mile. The EUR call was well outside of the box. There was no euro rally of course and I was completely wrong footed with this call. However, I lost nothing so I’m not complaining. The Kiwi satisfied, though. Just caught the move down and a mini-lot position brought me $378.20 profit.
This means over the three weeks, I’m currently $566.64 up, which I think is not bad going.
I’m hoping to be able to put up this week’s calls tomorrow Tuesday at around 16:00 GMT. Hope that’s OK with you. Watch this space!
All the best Sammy.
Live Trading Sessions
The next session will be on October 29th at 14:30 to 16:30 GMT. We will be trading the Colt FX pairs; and the Jam FX system, running a 1-minute system on the yen crosses and taking a look at using different time frames
If you’d like to join in, write to me at colt@coltfx.com.
Colt FX Testimonials
I have put up some recent Colt FX testimonials on the Notice Board. Take a look at what other people are saying about Colt FX.
Forex Club’s Platinum Package
Forex Club is offering the Colt FX distance learning course as part of their package of incentives to open a Platinum account. You can learn more about the details of this offer at http://www.fxclub.com/platinum/. You can find out more about Colt FX in our short film What is Colt FX?
Forex Club is offering the Colt FX distance learning course as part of their package of incentives to open a Platinum account. You can learn more about the details of this offer at http://www.fxclub.com/platinum/. You can find out more about Colt FX in our short film What is Colt FX?
That wraps it up for this week. Thank you for reading this far. Have a great week and I hope to see you at www.coltfx.com
If you have any questions about this newsletter or any of our services, please drop me a line at colt@coltfx.com.
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Disclaimer
www.coltfx.com, and any of its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available in this newsletter. The content provided is put forward in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Colt FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Colt FX or any of its affiliates, liable for decisions that are based on information in this newsletter. We highly recommend that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.
www.coltfx.com, and any of its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available in this newsletter. The content provided is put forward in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Colt FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Colt FX or any of its affiliates, liable for decisions that are based on information in this newsletter. We highly recommend that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources.
27 October | 
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